An analysis by Mansfield

Here is an analysis by L Mansfield, I post it because it deserves its due consideration if you are truely interested in the terrorist threat and al-Qaeda.

Thoughts on Thursday's message from Zawahiri

by Laura Mansfield


Each member of the Al Qaeda "leadership team" has special interests that differentiate one from the other. Ayman al Zawahiri reminded us in his message on Thursday that the issue near and dear to his heart is his homeland of Egypt .

Half of Zawahiri's message focused on recent events in Mahalla el Kubra , a town known for spinning and weaving about 60 miles north of Cairo in the fertile Nile Delta region. His focus on the events in Mahalla also provide us with somewhat of a time stamp for his message - the strike began on April 6, and Zawahiri's message (released the evening of April 17) was recorded after that date based on references to those events in the message.

It's easy to draw a quick conclusion that because much of the message deals with Egyptian local events, it is not applicable to the United States . But a careful read of Zawahiri's message makes is clear that he holds the United States responsible and accountable for the current situation in Egypt .

Bread prices in Egypt have been largely subsidized for decades, and the last time the Egyptian government tried to end the bread subsidies in 1977, the infamous "Bread Riots" occurred. The subsidy was reinstituted, and remains. For years, consumers in Egypt have been able to select between the highly subsidized and thus very cheap bread and higher quality, more expensive bread. In recent months, food prices have soared and the availability of the cheaper subsidized bread has dropped dramatically, while salaries remained stagnant.

On April 6, textile workers in Mahalla el Kubra attempted to strike to protest these increasing food prices especially of bread. The strike was met with strong resistance by Egyptian security forces, and several days of rioting ensued, with at least four people killed including a 15 year old boy.

Security forces and governmental response quieted things down. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak offered concessions, promising to improve health care facilities, and offered workers a month of salary as a bonus. He also ordered the military to immediately begin baking and distributing the cheap bread.

But Zawahiri sees these concessions as "crumbs" thrown to the masses. And it's clear that ultimately he places responsibility for this on the US because of its support for the Mubarak government.

It's clear that a key goal for Zawahiri is the removal of the Mubarak regime. It would be foolhardy not to take Zawahiri seriously; he was very much involved in the assassination of Mubarak's predecessor, Anwar Sadat in 1981, and was tried and imprisoned for his role in that assassination.

How much of a following Zawahiri has in Egypt is unclear. The recent events in Mahalla el Kubra were secular - even Egypt 's Muslim Brotherhood sat this one out. It is also evident that Al Qaeda did not have any role whatsoever in organizing the strike. The strike appears to have initiated with a young Egyptian woman named Esraa Abdel Fattah who began organizing it on Facebook.

In his message, Zawahiri blames the woes of the Muslim world on the United States . He blames the lack of electricity and water in Saudi Arabian slums on the US , claiming that America enables the Saudi royal family and its 7000 plus princes to loot the countries wealth for the benefit of the US . He goes on to lash out at Saudi King Abdullah for meeting with the Pope, who he claims insulted Islam. He blames conditions in Gaza on the "Zionist-Crusader" alliance.

In the first portion of his message, he stresses the importance of securing Iraq as what Al Suri refers to as a "safe haven"- a location where Al Qaeda can operate freely, training operatives, and to act as a base of operations to liberate other Islamic countries in the region from "oppressive regimes", and more importantly to liberate Jerusalem.

What is readily apparent from this message is that Zawahiri is very much plugged in and knowledgeable about current events which have transpired in his home country of Egypt , and has moved quickly to respond to these events publicly.

In addition, Zawahiri appears to be turning up the volume on the anti-American rhetoric once again. He may be hoping to inspire local free-lance terror cells to take his cue and lash out at US and Israeli interests.


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