Trends

Israelis Cite Escalating Trends in Terrorism PDF Print E-mail
by Joe Charlaff
Monday, 02 June 2008

Panel discussion tracks Hamas build-up

In 2008, there was a significant increase in the number of Israelis who were killed as a result of the latest escalation of terrorism directed from the Gaza Strip, and an improvement in Hamas operational capabilities, according to Israeli military and intelligence officials who recently outlined current trends in anti-Israel terrorism.

The officials who spoke to journalists this week were on a panel discussion in Jerusalem that was sponsored by the Israel Project and Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center.

Of significance, the officials said, has been the increase in rocket attacks from Gaza, coupled with the acquisition of longer range missiles that have been supplied by Iran. These developments have put Ashkelon – which is only 12 miles from the Gaza border - within range of Hamas rocket fire from Gaza.

Meanwhile, however, authorities said, there has been a marked decrease in suicide bombings since 2002 when 56 Israelis were killed. There was one attack in February, which coincided with the latest escalation of violence between Hamas in Gaza and Israel.

The success of Israeli counterterror measures is attributed in large part to the significant reduction in the number and severity of attacks. Many suicide bombers have been prevented from entering Israel because of the tight security checks that are carried out at the various crossings into Israel from the Palestinian territories.

In addition, Israeli military and intelligence officials told HSToday.us during a ten-day visit to Israel in February that the Israeli border fence also has played a significant role in reducing the number of suicide and other bombings inside Israel. See the HSToday.us report, “In Israel, Proof that a Security Fence Works.”

There also has been significant changes on the Palestinian front, the panel’s speakers said. In the period from 2007 when Hamas took over the Gaza strip, rocket and mortar fire from Gaza increased, with these weapons becoming the organization's main form of attack.

Brigadier General Yossi Kuperwasser (former Director, IDF’s Military Intelligence Research Branch) pointed out that Hamas has steadily built up its military infrastructure, and that its aim is to inflict as much damage on Israel as possible.

Consequently, to this end Hamas’s militia have equipped themselves with the longer range rockets and to arm themselves in a way that if Israel eventually decides to attack, it will be extremely difficult for the IDF to carry out a ground operation without incurring heavy losses.

Hamas's military build up has manifested in several ways, the officials explained:

* An increase in training by sending operatives to Iran and Syria;
* Improving its tunnel network;
* Acquiring weapons, especially rockets and advanced anti-tank missiles; and developing and manufacturing powerful explosive devices and anti-tank weapons.

Hamas’ principal benefactor is Iran, with whom ties have become increasingly tight. During the past two years, the terrorist organization is said to have received more than $100 million from Iran, as well as much more sophisticated rockets and other weaponry.

With Iranian assistance, last year Hamas was able to accelerate the military buildup of its military-terrorist wing, the Izzedine al-Qassam Brigades, which focuses on terrorist attacks against Israel.

Hamas also has learned how to militarily fight better, learning from the experiences of Hezbollah in the Lebanon war of 2006. Hamas has modeled its defenses and tactics on Hezbollah’s lessons learned.

Hamas has formed brigades along the lines of a regular army, with an estimated military-style fighting force of 15,000 soldiers. Its aim, Israeli officials said, is to arm itself with high trajectory weapons in order to avoid having to attempt breaches of the fence to attack Israel. This year, 30 long-range Grad rockets supplied by Iran wreaked substantial damage on Israeli civilian areas.

Elsewhere, to the north of Israel in Lebanon the military build up of Hezbullah and the activities of the global Jihadi terrorist networks have become increasingly worrisome.

Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah this week said in an address carried live by Hezbollah-owned al Manar TV, that:

* Hezbollah has won the war in Lebanon;
* Hezbollah has defeated the democracy movement in Lebanon and the government it produced;
* The United States and its allies know they are unable to defeat Hezbollah in Lebanon or in Iran by military force;
* Hezbollah demonstrated to Washington that it cannot move forward with its Middle East freedom and democracy strategy, particularly from Lebanon;
* That Hezbollah has seized real power in Lebanon and that it does not have to make it formal;
* The Lebanese Army will never be used to disarm Hezbollah because its commander, a Hezbollah ally, is now president;
* Hezbollah will fight any international move or intervention to disarm it;
* Hezbollah will grow militarily in Lebanon with the backing of Iran, in parallel to its presence within the Lebanese Army;
* Hezbollah has offered a successful model of combat-confrontation against its enemies, thus it will not accept diplomatic solutions; and
* Hamas and Islamic Jihad - using Hezbollah’s model - will continue their terror operations against Israel and the Palestinian Authority; and
* Hezbollah supports the armed insurrection against the political process in Iraq.

These assertions have not been well reported by the international media. Neither has the intelligence indicating the conspicuous construction of a new Hezbollah rocket arsenal in southern Lebanon which threatens Israel.

On the eve of the second Lebanon war, Hezbollah possessed approximately 20,000 rockets, among which Israel was successful in destroying the longer range variety. But now a rehabilitated Hezbollah arsenal has been established with the help of Iran and Syria. This missile stockpile poses a formidable new threat to Israel, with many of the missiles believed to be capable of striking Tel Aviv and cities farther to the south.

The extent of Iran's assistance to Hezbollah – which Iran helped found and has consistently bankrolled, trained, and armed - is considerable. It’s estimated to be in the hundreds of millions to perhaps as much as $1 billion. And this doesn’t include the money Iran gave Hezbollah to rebuild after the 2006 war.

Hezbollah suffered a major blow, however, when its chief of terrorist operations, Imad Fayez Mughniyeh, was assassinated in February. Mughniyeh had been at the heart of every major Hezbollah terrorist attack for the better part of the last 25 years, and was the mastermind behind many attacks on American targets in Saudi Arabia and Africa.

On February 13 he was assassinated in Damascus. Hezbollah and Iran have blamed Israel for the assassination, which was quite sophisticated, and vowed to retaliate for his death.

Asked if Hezbollah’s promise to retaliate is still a concern, Brig. Gen. David Tzur, Director General, Israel Intelligence Heritage and Commemoration Center, said yes, but hesitated to specify in what manner Israel expects Hezbollah to seek its retribution - or when.

But, it’s just a matter of time, Tzur said.

So far this year, Israel's northern border has been quiet. Hezbollah has continued its current policy of avoiding attacks on Israel, focusing instead on efforts to rehabilitate its military infrastructure.

Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, meanwhile, are the dominant terrorist organizations in Gaza and the territories, and are concentrating on expanding their own relationships with Teheran.

With hundreds of rockets and long-range missiles provided by Iran now positioned throughout Gaza, and possibly the West Bank, the threat to Israel is steadily growing. And the chances of reaching a ceasefire are slim.